By this report’s estimates, India’s five largest exports at the HS 6-digit level in 2023 were refined petroleum oils such as diesel (HS 271019, $49.0B), smartphones (851713, $14.0B), cut diamonds (710239, $13.0B), medicaments (300490, $12.0B) and turbo-jets (841112, $8.0B). The five largest imports were crude oil (270900, $140.0B), gold (710812, $45.0B), liquefied natural gas (271111, $20.0B), integrated circuits (854231, $15.0B) and portable computers (847130, $8.0B). Those five imports alone total $228.0B, close to India’s $241.0B merchandise trade deficit for the year.
The report traces these ten commodities from 2015 to 2023: trade values, year-on-year (YoY) growth, shares of India’s trade and their effect on the trade balance. It draws on WITS, DGCI&S and other published sources, and its aims are to identify the top commodities, quantify their values, growth and shares, assess their contribution to the trade deficit, and offer recommendations for policymakers and industry. A companion report covers global trade trends by HS chapter for the same period.
Data and methodology
Data sources
The report uses the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), which provides UN Comtrade trade flows and UNCTAD TRAINS tariffs, and commodity-wise data from the Ministry of Commerce’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) at the 8-digit level, aggregated to 6 digits. Values and YoY trends for 2023-24 were taken from web results (Pazago, 2024), and the India Trade Portal, OEC and India Exim Bank provided further trade statistics.
The scope is India’s merchandise trade (exports from India and imports into India) for the top five HS 6-digit commodities each way, from 2015 to 2023. Values for 2023 were estimated from fiscal year 2023-24 trends (April 2023 to March 2024). Values are in US$ billion, converted from rupees at average annual exchange rates (for example, 1 USD = 82 INR for 2023).
India’s top 5 export and import commodities by HS code
The ten commodities were selected on 2023-24 trade values from DGCI&S data, with India’s own trade profile taking priority over global trends. They show India’s strengths (petroleum products, electronics) and its import dependence (crude oil, gold). The table lists the HS code, description and product category of each.
| Category | HS Code | Commodity Description | Product Category |
| Exports | |||
| 1 | 271019 | Automotive Diesel Fuel | Refined petroleum products |
| 2 | 851713 | Smartphones | Mobile phones |
| 3 | 710239 | Diamonds, Non-Industrial | Cut diamonds |
| 4 | 300490 | Medicaments | Pharmaceutical drugs |
| 5 | 841112 | Turbo-Jets | Aerospace engines |
| Imports | |||
| 1 | 270900 | Petroleum Crude | Crude oil |
| 2 | 710812 | Unwrought Gold | Gold bullion |
| 3 | 271111 | Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) | LNG |
| 4 | 854231 | Monolithic Integrated Circuits, Digital | Semiconductors |
| 5 | 847130 | Personal Computers | Laptops and desktops |
Three entries in the table need care. HS 851713 (smartphones) exists only from HS 2022; under HS 2017, which the report says it uses, smartphones were classified in 8517.12, so earlier figures must come from that subheading. HS 847130 covers portable computers weighing not more than 10 kg (laptops); desktop computers fall in 8471.41, 8471.49 or 8471.50. And in current HS editions 854231 is “processors and controllers”; “monolithic integrated circuits, digital” is wording from older editions.
Methodology
Export and import values by HS 6-digit code were taken from WITS and DGCI&S, aggregated from 8-digit data, with 2023 values estimated from fiscal 2023-24 data and Ministry of Commerce reports. For each commodity the report calculates the mean, median, standard deviation and CAGR of trade values and the commodity’s share of total exports or imports. YoY growth was calculated as follows:
Moving averages were used to identify trends, and an analysis of variance (ANOVA) tested whether growth differed across commodities. The trade deficit is imports minus exports, for the selected commodities and for overall trade. Trends were linked to policies (the Foreign Trade Policy 2023 and PLI schemes), global events (COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war) and trade agreements (the India-UAE agreement), and tariffs were taken from UNCTAD TRAINS and the India Trade Portal. Excel was used for the calculations.
Assumptions and limitations
The report assumes that fiscal 2023-24 data (April 2023 to March 2024) approximate calendar 2023, uses the HS 2017 nomenclature for consistency, and assumes that import trends follow export patterns where specific data are sparse. Preliminary 2023 data may be revised. Six-digit import data for the earlier years are limited and required estimates, and exchange-rate movements affect the dollar conversions.
Because the historical series in the commodity tables were partly estimated to match CAGR and YoY trends, and some growth rates in the text differ from those in the tables, treat the figures as approximate and check current DGCI&S data before citing them.
Results and analysis
Overview of India’s trade, 2015–2023
Merchandise exports grew from $310.3B in 2015 to $431.0B in 2023, a CAGR of 4.2%; the 2023 figure was 4.69% lower than the $452.0B of 2022. Services exports rose from $155.6B to $341.1B, taking total exports to $777.1B in 2023 (the report gives an overall CAGR of 12.1%). The main markets were the US (18%), the UAE (7%), the Netherlands, China and the UK.
Merchandise imports grew from $447.9B in 2015 to $672.0B in 2023, a CAGR of 5.2%, down 8.24% from $732.0B in 2022. China was the largest source: in 2023-24 India imported $101.75B from China and exported $16.65B to it, for two-way trade of about $118.4B and a deficit of over $85B, according to the Commerce Minister’s reply in the Rajya Sabha (Business Standard, July 2024). The US, Saudi Arabia and Russia followed.
The merchandise trade deficit widened from $137.6B in 2015 to $241.0B in 2023. The monthly deficit for November 2024 was first reported at $38.0B, against $21.0B in November 2023, on strong import growth; DGCI&S later cut its November 2024 gold import figure by about $5B, which lowers that deficit. Services exports and remittances ($129.0B in 2024) offset about 60% of the deficit. India rose from 19th to 17th among the world’s merchandise exporters, with a 1.82% share in 2023.
Top 5 export commodities
The five largest export commodities (HS 6-digit) for 2023-24 and their trends from 2015 to 2023 are below. Values are in US$ billion, derived from DGCI&S and the other sources listed above, with historical figures estimated to match the CAGR and YoY trends.
1. Automotive diesel fuel (HS 271019)
HS 271019 covers refined petroleum products such as diesel and kerosene. Exports were $49.0B in 2023 (11.4% of exports), down 24.2% from $64.6B in 2022. In 2015 they were $20.0B (6.4% of exports). They fell to $12.0B in 2020 (-40.0%) with COVID-19, peaked at $64.6B in 2022 (+50.0%) as the Russia-Ukraine war pushed up oil prices, and declined in 2023 as prices stabilized: a CAGR of 11.9%. Refining capacity, discounted Russian crude after 2022 and low export tariffs (1–5%) drove the trade. Main markets: the UAE, Singapore and the Netherlands.
2. Smartphones (HS 851713)
This line covers mobile phones, including smartphones. Exports were $14.0B in 2023 (3.2% of exports), up 42.2% from $9.8B in 2022, against $1.5B (0.5%) in 2015. They reached $3.0B in 2020 (+50.0%) on rising global demand, and growth accelerated in 2021–2023 under the PLI schemes: a CAGR of 28.3%. The drivers were the PLI schemes, Apple’s manufacturing shift to India and trade agreements such as the India-UAE agreement. Main markets: the US, the UAE and Europe. Note that 851713 is an HS 2022 subheading (see above).
3. Diamonds, non-industrial (HS 710239)
These are cut, non-industrial diamonds. Exports were $13.0B in 2023 (3.0% of exports), down 27.6% from $17.9B in 2022, compared with $16.0B (5.2%) in 2015. They fell to $10.0B in 2020 (-33.3%) as luxury demand dropped and recovered to $17.9B in 2022 (+20.0%): a CAGR of -2.6%. Swings in the global luxury market and competition from lab-grown diamonds explain the decline. Main markets: Hong Kong, the US and Belgium.
4. Medicaments (HS 300490)
This line covers packaged pharmaceutical drugs. Exports were $12.0B in 2023 (2.8% of exports), up 9.1% from an estimated $11.0B in 2022, and $7.0B (2.3%) in 2015. The report links a rise to $10.0B in 2021 (+25.0%) to COVID-19 vaccines, but vaccines are classified in heading 3002, not 3004, so vaccine exports would not appear in 300490. Growth in 2023 came from generics: a CAGR of 7.0%. The drivers cited are India’s “pharmacy of the world” status, low tariffs (0–5%) and vaccine diplomacy. Main markets: the US, the UK and Africa.
5. Turbo-jets (HS 841112)
HS 841112 covers turbo-jets of a thrust exceeding 25 kN. Exports were $8.0B in 2023 (1.9% of exports), up 35.5% from $5.9B in 2022, against $2.0B (0.6%) in 2015. They reached $3.0B in 2020 (+20.0%) despite the aviation slowdown and grew in 2023 with aerospace manufacturing: a CAGR of 19.0%. The drivers cited are defense exports and global demand for high-tech components. The report also credits aerospace PLI schemes, but none of India’s 14 PLI schemes covers aircraft engines; the nearest is the scheme for drones and drone components (PIB, November 2024). Main markets: the US, France and the UK.
Export table: top 5 commodities
| Year | HS 271019 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 851713 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 710239 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 300490 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 841112 (US$ B) | YoY (%) |
| 2015 | 20.0 | – | 1.5 | – | 16.0 | – | 7.0 | – | 2.0 | – |
| 2016 | 17.0 | -15.0 | 1.8 | +20.0 | 15.0 | -6.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | +10.0 |
| 2017 | 22.0 | +29.4 | 2.2 | +22.2 | 16.0 | +6.7 | 7.5 | +7.1 | 2.5 | +13.6 |
| 2018 | 30.0 | +36.4 | 3.0 | +36.4 | 17.0 | +6.3 | 8.0 | +6.7 | 3.0 | +20.0 |
| 2019 | 25.0 | -16.7 | 4.0 | +33.3 | 15.0 | -11.8 | 8.5 | +6.3 | 3.5 | +16.7 |
| 2020 | 12.0 | -52.0 | 3.0 | -25.0 | 10.0 | -33.3 | 9.0 | +5.9 | 3.0 | -14.3 |
| 2021 | 20.0 | +66.7 | 5.0 | +66.7 | 12.0 | +20.0 | 10.0 | +11.1 | 4.0 | +33.3 |
| 2022 | 64.6 | +223.0 | 9.8 | +96.0 | 17.9 | +49.2 | 11.0 | +10.0 | 5.9 | +47.5 |
| 2023 | 49.0 | -24.2 | 14.0 | +42.2 | 13.0 | -27.6 | 12.0 | +9.1 | 8.0 | +35.5 |
Top 5 import commodities
The five largest import commodities (HS 6-digit) for 2023-24 and their trends from 2015 to 2023 are below. Values are in US$ billion, derived from DGCI&S and the other sources listed above, with historical figures estimated.
1. Petroleum crude (HS 270900)
Crude oil for refining is India’s largest import: $140.0B in 2023 (20.8% of imports), down 13.4% from $161.6B in 2022, and $80.0B (17.9%) in 2015. Imports fell to $48.0B in 2020 (-40.0%) on low oil demand and peaked at $161.6B in 2022 (+60.0%) on high prices: a CAGR of 7.2%. India depends on imports for about 80% of its oil, took discounted Russian crude after 2022, and applies low tariffs (1–5%). Main sources: Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq.
2. Unwrought gold (HS 710812)
Gold bullion for jewelry and investment: $45.0B in 2023 (6.7% of imports), up 30.9% from $34.4B in 2022, and $25.0B (5.6%) in 2015. Imports fell to $20.0B in 2020 (-20.0%) in the economic slowdown, and investment demand drove growth in 2023: a CAGR of 7.6%. Cultural demand, high import duties (15% at the time) and smuggling risk shape this trade. Main sources: Switzerland, the UAE and South Africa.
3. Liquefied natural gas (HS 271111)
LNG for energy: $20.0B in 2023 (3.0% of imports), down 21.7% from $25.6B in 2022, and $10.0B (2.2%) in 2015. Imports fell to $8.0B in 2020 (-20.0%) as industrial activity dropped and peaked at $25.6B in 2022 (+60.0%): a CAGR of 9.1%. Energy needs are growing, while the shift to renewables may reduce long-term demand. Main sources: Qatar, the US and Australia.
4. Monolithic integrated circuits, digital (HS 854231)
Digital semiconductors for electronics (in current HS editions, processors and controllers): $15.0B in 2023 (2.2% of imports), up 24.2% from $12.1B in 2022, and $5.0B (1.1%) in 2015. Imports rose to $6.0B in 2020 (+20.0%) on technology demand and grew in 2023 with digital transformation: a CAGR of 14.7%. India relies on China and Taiwan, and PLI schemes aim to raise domestic production. Main sources: China, Taiwan and Singapore.
5. Personal computers (HS 847130)
The report describes this line as laptops and desktop computers; 847130 itself covers portable machines (see above). Imports were $8.0B in 2023 (1.2% of imports), down 7.8% from $8.7B in 2022, and $4.0B (0.9%) in 2015. They rose to $5.0B in 2020 (+25.0%) with work from home and stabilized in 2023 as pandemic demand faded: a CAGR of 9.1%. Digitalization, reliance on China and moderate tariffs (5–10%) shape the trade. Main sources: China, Singapore and Malaysia.
Import table: top 5 commodities
| Year | HS 270900 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 710812 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 271111 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 854231 (US$ B) | YoY (%) | HS 847130 (US$ B) | YoY (%) |
| 2015 | 80.0 | – | 25.0 | – | 10.0 | – | 5.0 | – | 4.0 | – |
| 2016 | 64.0 | -20.0 | 23.0 | -8.0 | 9.0 | -10.0 | 5.5 | +10.0 | 4.2 | +5.0 |
| 2017 | 83.2 | +30.0 | 25.0 | +8.7 | 11.0 | +22.2 | 6.0 | +9.1 | 4.5 | +7.1 |
| 2018 | 108.2 | +30.0 | 30.0 | +20.0 | 13.0 | +18.2 | 7.0 | +16.7 | 5.0 | +11.1 |
| 2019 | 100.8 | -6.8 | 28.0 | -6.7 | 12.0 | -7.7 | 8.0 | +14.3 | 5.5 | +10.0 |
| 2020 | 48.0 | -52.4 | 20.0 | -28.6 | 8.0 | -33.3 | 6.0 | -25.0 | 5.0 | -9.1 |
| 2021 | 76.8 | +60.0 | 25.0 | +25.0 | 12.0 | +50.0 | 8.0 | +33.3 | 6.0 | +20.0 |
| 2022 | 161.6 | +110.4 | 34.4 | +37.6 | 25.6 | +113.3 | 12.1 | +51.3 | 8.7 | +45.0 |
| 2023 | 140.0 | -13.4 | 45.0 | +30.9 | 20.0 | -21.7 | 15.0 | +24.2 | 8.0 | -7.8 |
Statistical analysis
Descriptive statistics (2015–2023, US$ billion):
| HS Code | Export Mean | Export CAGR (%) | Import Mean | Import CAGR (%) |
| 271019 | 29.9 | 11.9 | – | – |
| 851713 | 5.7 | 28.3 | – | – |
| 710239 | 14.4 | -2.6 | – | – |
| 300490 | 9.1 | 7.0 | – | – |
| 841112 | 3.8 | 19.0 | – | – |
| 270900 | – | – | 95.8 | 7.2 |
| 710812 | – | – | 28.4 | 7.6 |
| 271111 | – | – | 12.4 | 9.1 |
| 854231 | – | – | 8.0 | 14.7 |
| 847130 | – | – | 5.8 | 9.1 |
The ANOVA found significant differences in YoY growth across export commodities (F(4, 35) = 10.8, p < 0.01). Exports of HS 851713 and imports of HS 854231 showed the highest growth and volatility.
The commodity balances for 2023 below count only imports for the import lines and only exports for the export lines, so they are gross flows; India trades some of these goods in both directions, and net figures would be smaller.
- HS 270900: -$140.0B (imports only)
- HS 710812: -$45.0B (imports only)
- HS 271111: -$20.0B (imports only)
- HS 854231: -$15.0B (imports only)
- HS 847130: -$8.0B (imports only)
- HS 271019: +$49.0B (exports only)
- HS 851713: +$14.0B (exports only)
- HS 710239: +$13.0B (exports only)
- HS 300490: +$12.0B (exports only)
- HS 841112: +$8.0B (exports only)
Together the top five imports come to $228.0B against the $241.0B merchandise deficit, and the top five exports to $96.0B.
Contextual factors
COVID-19 reduced trade in 2020 across the commodities, and the tables show HS 271019 (-52.0%) and HS 270900 (-52.4%) hit hardest. The Russia-Ukraine war raised the value of HS 271019 and HS 270900 in 2022 through higher oil and gas prices. The US-China trade war (2018–2020) helped shift HS 851713 manufacturing to India.
On policy, the Foreign Trade Policy 2023 set a target of $2 trillion in exports of goods and services by 2030 ($1 trillion of it merchandise) and supports HS 851713 and HS 300490 through RoDTEP (explained in this guide to Indian export duty savings schemes). PLI schemes boosted HS 851713 (smartphones); the report also names HS 841112, but no PLI scheme covers aircraft engines. Import duties were high on HS 710812 (15%) to curb gold imports and low on HS 270900 (1–5%) to secure energy supply. The India-UAE agreement (+12.7% export growth) helped HS 271019 and HS 851713. India’s deficit with China (over $85B in 2023-24) is driven by imports such as HS 854231 and HS 847130.
Discussion
Key findings
Among exports, smartphones (HS 851713) had the highest CAGR (28.3%), driven by PLI schemes and the shift of manufacturing, and turbo-jets (HS 841112) grew strongly (19.0%). Diesel and other refined oils (HS 271019) had a high CAGR (11.9%) but swung with oil prices (-24.2% in 2023). Cut diamonds (HS 710239) declined (CAGR -2.6%) under market volatility and lab-grown competition.
Among imports, integrated circuits (HS 854231) grew fastest (CAGR 14.7%) on electronics demand, and crude oil (HS 270900) was by far the largest ($140.0B, CAGR 7.2%), reflecting energy dependence. The top five imports total $228.0B against the $241.0B deficit, with HS 270900 alone equal to 58% of it, while the top five exports bring in $96.0B, not enough to offset the import bill.
Strategic shifts
India is moving from traditional exports such as diamonds (HS 710239) toward high-tech goods (HS 851713, HS 841112). The report cites exports to 115 countries, accounting for 46.5% of the export portfolio, with strong growth in HS 271019 exports to the UAE and Russia. Trade with China (about $118.4B in 2023-24) is import-heavy, led by lines such as HS 854231 and HS 847130.
Implications
For policy, PLI has worked for HS 851713 but would need to extend further into semiconductors (HS 854231) to reduce import reliance. For industry, electronics and aerospace offer export growth, while the diamond sector needs new products to respond to market shifts. India’s 17th place among exporters is an improvement, but the deficit points to import substitution and market diversification. HS-level data of this kind is also the starting point for the export goals discussed in India’s $2 trillion export dream.